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Why raises the price of gold?

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Why the price of gold raises

economic crisis, gold, prices, markets, ETF

Marion Mueller* - 16/03/2009

 

In the middle of the crisis and before the increasing distrust in the markets and the financial system, the price of gold has increased more of a 20% in the last six months. The fear to the recession causes that every time they are plus the investors who choose to invest in gold. The increase of the quote of the metal, puts in evidence the confidence in gold like value refuge. History tells us that the price of gold increases when the investors question themselves that the money/paper is not going to assure its savings. Doubtlessly, one of the factors that have impelled to the rise the price of the metal, is the growth of the investment, very especially through the ETF endorsed by gold. These financial instruments, exist from November of the 2004. The ETF are tie to the evolution of the price of gold, they quote in stock market and they are bought and they sold just as an action. A ETF corresponds to the tenth part of the value of one ounce of gold. The ETF have facilitated the gold investment on the part of people and institutions, having increased significantly the number of new participants in the market of gold. The gold reserves that endorse quoted bottoms ETF have grown to huge steps and they are, at present, in levels record, surpassing the 1,325 tons. These Quoted Bottoms own at the moment as a whole, but gold that many central banks. For example, the Bank of Spain owns in its reserves only 281 tons of gold. It is important to remember the investors who, the ETF offer a exhibition at the cost of gold, but not all the benefits of the physical property in the form of ingots or currencies. This spectacular increase of the investments in quoted gold bottoms is causing preoccupation between some analysts who fear that if suddenly changes the bullish tendency for gold, its quote would fall to lead. The fast growth of the quoted bottoms, is a weapon of double edge for the price of gold, since it increases volatileness, as much to the rise as to the loss.

Exists a bubble in the price of gold?

In order to define the ascent continued of gold, during last the seven years like a bubble, it would have to fulfill like minimum with an indispensable requirement: to have reached maximum in its quote. And, the gold has not reached far from it its historical maximums as it happened, for example, with petroleum in the 2008. So that the price of gold reached its historical maximums, fit to the inflation, the metal would have to quote over the 2,200 dollars the ounce. The 850 nominal dollars that the quote of gold in 1980 reached, would give a present price us of 2,200 dollars, fit to the inflation. And, the present price of gold this even very far from that number. On the other hand, although the gold is a raw material, in the days of financial uncertainty it acts as a currency. The gold represents the money par excellence. It is a thermometer that it indicates that something goes bad in the world-wide economy. It is a perfect barometer of the inflation as they explained in the Report of Gold of the Cheuvreux consultant of the French Bank Crédit Agricole made in London in January of 2006.El understood gold as active monetary form leaves from international the financial system and it becomes a refuge at times of uncertainty. He is oldest, but important and safe of the monetary assets of the history of the humanity. It represents the money par excellence. It is a value recognized by all the cultures of the world for more than 5000 years. In fact, the central banks worldwide own gold like part of their monetary reserves. The 26 of September of 1999, fifteen reunited European central banks in Washington, signed the Power station Bank Gold Agreement. They declared that “the gold will continue being an important element of world-wide the monetary reserves?. Exists greater confirmation for the paper of gold like monetary assets that the joint declaration of 15 central banks? “The gold continues representing the fundamental form of payment in the world. The fiduciary currency, in extreme cases, accepts it to nobody. The gold always is accepted?, are words of Alan Greenspan. The crisis of the financial system. We do not forget that, the financial system that we have at present is not more than an experiment. An experiment that was created when Nixon

before the Congress of the USA in 1999. it decided to separate, of unilateral way, to the dollar of his gold endorsement. It was at this moment, with the free floatation of currencies, when a financial system never before undergone started up and that it has finalized with the present economic crisis. Richard Nixon suspended, in August of 1971, the convertibility of the dollar in gold and devaluated the American currency a 10%. With this decision, seizure of unilateral form and by Nixon decree, “closed the window? of gold and lacked to the commitment established in the agreement of Bretton Woods, 25 years before. As a result of this decision, for the first time in history, the currencies did not have endorsement some. This explains that, from year 1971, world-wide the financial system is an experiment. Crisis indicates the present us that this experiment is arriving at its aim.
The price of gold would continue raising whereas the confidence in the economy does not recover. A situation that lamentably even took years in becoming in fact. *Marion Mueller is Gold analyst and Finances.
Updated (Wednesday, 19 of August of 2009 09:38)  

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